Richie McCaw v South Africa

Much talk has been made of Graham Henry’s coaching success but let’s not forget, when Richie McCaw is playing, the AB’s don’t lose many.

However, South Africa and South African teams, are the exception of late. Up until last year, Richie McCaw’s mere presence in a side meant that they were odds on to win.

There are few players in the world that have the kind of influence on a team that he does but against South Africa last year and to a degree, against the top 2 South African sides, the side he was playing in, albeit the Crusaders or the AB’s, came up short.

Teams certainly don’t rely on 1 man but for South Africa or South African teams, to have that kind of dominance over a Richie McCaw led side in recent times, is a testament to how well they are going.

Crystal Ball Gazing 2011 Rugby World Cup

Its early days but I can't help sense that the All Blacks are making the same mistakes all over again leading into next year's World Cup. Here are a couple of reasons why...

First it was the signing of Sonny Bill Williams because although it doesn't guarantee his inclusion in the World Cup Squad not selecting him would be an expensive mistake.

Secondly, Graham Henry's selections are still erratic at best and he just can't seem to make up his mind. The rotation policy was supposed to be dead and buried but it appears to be rearing its ugly head again.

Thirdly, their experiment with converting players into unfamiliar positions is a strange one indeed.

Fourthly, the NZRFU has just announced a huge bonus for all players involved in winning the World Cup. Just what they need, some added pressure!

Last but not least the All Blacks starting XV isn't that strong. Sure they appear to have plenty of depth and there is probably little difference between their 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams ranked teams but they have few truly world class players and the timing of the World Cup for some players is not favourable. Players like Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Brad Thorn, Ali Williams, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith and Mils Muliaina are a handful of players that might be past their best by the time of the World Cup. Unfortunately, they make up a core group of players deemed necessary to win the World Cup. An interesting dilemma for the coaching panel nonetheless.

Prediction: South Africa v France in the 2011 Rugby World Cup Final. Remember, you heard it here first.