What were you thinking?

Graham Henry is not a bad coach and has been reasonable successful all things considered. However, he is his own worst enemy at times.

Why?

- He way overthinks things and second guesses himself. He often ignores logic and is too controlling. Relax man. Just pick the best players in their respected positions and get on with it.

- He is guilty of selecting "utility" players over specialists.

- What the? Why were players like Hosea Gear, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Rene Ranger and possibly Sean Maitland overlooked for the World Cup? He selected 5 fullbacks and only 1 specialist wing. Ridiculous. Robbie Fruen and Wyatt Crockett could possibly count themselves unlucky too. No back up to Richie McCaw a schoolboy error also. Adam Thompson ain't no back up Mr Henry.

- SBW. Enough said.

Another WC approaching and the wheels are falling off. Mind you, the nuts and bolts were coming loose some time ago.

Please ignore if the All Blacks win the 2011, Rugby World Cup.

Richie McCaw v South Africa

Much talk has been made of Graham Henry’s coaching success but let’s not forget, when Richie McCaw is playing, the AB’s don’t lose many.

However, South Africa and South African teams, are the exception of late. Up until last year, Richie McCaw’s mere presence in a side meant that they were odds on to win.

There are few players in the world that have the kind of influence on a team that he does but against South Africa last year and to a degree, against the top 2 South African sides, the side he was playing in, albeit the Crusaders or the AB’s, came up short.

Teams certainly don’t rely on 1 man but for South Africa or South African teams, to have that kind of dominance over a Richie McCaw led side in recent times, is a testament to how well they are going.

Crystal Ball Gazing 2011 Rugby World Cup

Its early days but I can't help sense that the All Blacks are making the same mistakes all over again leading into next year's World Cup. Here are a couple of reasons why...

First it was the signing of Sonny Bill Williams because although it doesn't guarantee his inclusion in the World Cup Squad not selecting him would be an expensive mistake.

Secondly, Graham Henry's selections are still erratic at best and he just can't seem to make up his mind. The rotation policy was supposed to be dead and buried but it appears to be rearing its ugly head again.

Thirdly, their experiment with converting players into unfamiliar positions is a strange one indeed.

Fourthly, the NZRFU has just announced a huge bonus for all players involved in winning the World Cup. Just what they need, some added pressure!

Last but not least the All Blacks starting XV isn't that strong. Sure they appear to have plenty of depth and there is probably little difference between their 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams ranked teams but they have few truly world class players and the timing of the World Cup for some players is not favourable. Players like Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Brad Thorn, Ali Williams, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith and Mils Muliaina are a handful of players that might be past their best by the time of the World Cup. Unfortunately, they make up a core group of players deemed necessary to win the World Cup. An interesting dilemma for the coaching panel nonetheless.

Prediction: South Africa v France in the 2011 Rugby World Cup Final. Remember, you heard it here first.

The All Blacks squad for Tri Nations.

Happy to see Rene Ranger in the team and still think he might be best on the right wing. Cory Jane deserves a start at fullback if that’s the case but it will be interesting to see how Mills Muliaina goes. I would like to see Piri Weepu get a start also. Hosea Gear would have to consider himself unlucky but talk about depth on the left wing.

Has anyone else thought of Victor Vito at number 8? I'm not sure if he has played there before but has the physical presence. Think the selectors have gone with Liam Messam to cover 8 but think Vito could do the job. Perhaps would have retained Thomson over Messam and had Vito cover 8. Jury still out on Ben Franks but otherwise looks good.

I can’t help but think these are tactical moves by Graham Henry. Perhaps he wants Hosea Gear, Adam Thomson and Zac Guilford to fight hard for their positions in the team because he has a tendency to do this i.e. how bad do they want it? Are they willing to do whatever it takes? The All Blacks are the only team in the world that can afford to do this, however.

Psst...Graham Henry and Co

Memo to Graham Henry and co. Too often you seem to select players that you think will fit into your system or playing style you are trying to adopt rather than just selecting the best performing player in that position and this may be part of your undoing. I call it the 'select and hope' policy you seem to have adopted.

In some ways it may have clouded your judgement when making selections. You are, in other words, over thinking it. You have comitted to a certain playing style for example and are then trying to find the right players to make it work. This is a somewhat flawed approach IMO because the opportunity cost is that you may have to trial more players to find the right fit and/or have players playing out of their preferred postion to make it fit. For example, you may be looking for players that are comfortable under the high ball to suit your game plan but at the same excluding a player that is a try scoring, specialist right winger.

It’s an outside in approach rather than an inside out approach and that's what bothers me. Wayne Shelford summed it up best when he said ‘they are just doing their job’ (click on title 'Psst...Graham Henry and Co' for the interview) in an interview many years ago. Keep it simple by just selecting players in their preferred positions, have faith in them and make sure they are doing the basics better than anyone else ie ‘doing their jobs’ and the rest will take it of itself.