Crystal Ball Gazing 2011 Rugby World Cup

Its early days but I can't help sense that the All Blacks are making the same mistakes all over again leading into next year's World Cup. Here are a couple of reasons why...

First it was the signing of Sonny Bill Williams because although it doesn't guarantee his inclusion in the World Cup Squad not selecting him would be an expensive mistake.

Secondly, Graham Henry's selections are still erratic at best and he just can't seem to make up his mind. The rotation policy was supposed to be dead and buried but it appears to be rearing its ugly head again.

Thirdly, their experiment with converting players into unfamiliar positions is a strange one indeed.

Fourthly, the NZRFU has just announced a huge bonus for all players involved in winning the World Cup. Just what they need, some added pressure!

Last but not least the All Blacks starting XV isn't that strong. Sure they appear to have plenty of depth and there is probably little difference between their 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams ranked teams but they have few truly world class players and the timing of the World Cup for some players is not favourable. Players like Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Brad Thorn, Ali Williams, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith and Mils Muliaina are a handful of players that might be past their best by the time of the World Cup. Unfortunately, they make up a core group of players deemed necessary to win the World Cup. An interesting dilemma for the coaching panel nonetheless.

Prediction: South Africa v France in the 2011 Rugby World Cup Final. Remember, you heard it here first.

The All Black Illusion

This was a game of 2 halves. The All Blacks started well and were quite dominant early on without much reward but all this changed when Jamie Heaslip was sent off for attempting to knee the head of an opposition player. Not only did Ireland need to be at full strength to win this one they also needed to have all fifteen men on the field!

Combined with O'Gara's sin binning, which reduced the Irish to thirteen men for ten minutes, the floodgates opened and by the time O'Gara came back on they were behind 38 points to nil. To their credit the men in green fought back strongly and actually finished with 4 converted tries but arguably much of this could be contributed to the fact that the All Blacks emptied their bench to give everyone a run.

The game actually became very messy toward the end and one can only wonder what the benefits are in giving everyone a run in such unstructured Rugby. In the end it started to resemble a trial more than a test match and became almost farcical. The All Black jumper is becoming somewhat cheapened by the day. How many players are they going to use before they settle on their best XV? Yes, supposedly they have great depth and their best team wouldn't be much different than their 3rd or 4th ranked team but that's where the problem lies.

In days gone by there was daylight between the starting fifteen and the rest but that's when the All Blacks were at their best, when almost all their starting players would make any side in the world. Now, with the possible exception of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Conrad Smith no one else would feature. That's a travesty in my book and the current administration of Graham Henry and co has to portion some of the blame. They are making the same mistakes all over again.

All time effort and energy should be spent on developing the best possible side and if you don't make it, too bad. In the past, when a player got dropped it was a big deal but not anymore. There are too many All Blacks on the scrapheap to even mention here. What is their obsession with rotating and experimenting with players each and every game?

Just select a side and be done with it already! Select players in their specialist positions and get on with it. Take time to nurture them and watch them grow. Out of all the players new to the All Blacks last night the 1 that stood out the most was Benson Stanley. Ironically, he stood out because he didn’t stand out. The selectors can hardly take credit for it either because almost by their own admission he was chosen by default. He was simply chosen in his specialist position and just did the basics well. He even made Conrad Smith look good. Too often Ma'a Nonu's game has overshadowed Smith's and even the wingers to some extent. In the words of Wayne Shelford, the All blacks are at their best when everyone does their job i.e. 14 men helping to put the 15th man over the line. In other words, GET BACK TO THE BASICS!

Shouldn't their aim be to beat the Springboks by 1 point rather than Ireland by 31? At this rate they won't. Although they appear to be going forward they are actually going backwards. It's an illusion that will be tested by the Wallabies and shown up against the Springboks this year. You heard it here first.

Sonny Bill Williams About To Sign?

Sonny Bill off to the land of the long white cloud eh? He was born and raised in NZ, his Grandmother was born in Australia, he is of Samoan decent, his Rugby League apprentice was served in Australia, his Rugby Union apprentice was served in France and now reportedly, he is about to play Rugby in NZ. Confused?

His progression hasn't necessarily been a smooth one and his short career has been clouded in controversy. Mr Williams was famously caught with Candice Falzon in a toilet tryst at the Clovelly Hotel while having a girlfriend at the time and was also branded a deserter for breaking his contract early with the Bulldogs. Most people would have understood if he had waited until the end of the season but the fact that he left half way through and slipped 'out the back door' left a sour taste in most people's mouths.

There is no doubt he is a prodigious talent and he has proven at Toulon that he can play Rugby Union but his potential signing with the NZRFU is a massive punt that he can produce the goods. The other issue is that he is somewhat injury prone and given the short amount of time he has to prove himself before next year's World Cup could become a factor.

There has been a mixed reaction from the general public and while some say good on him for turning down the big dollars that Toulon were offering others are not convinced it's in NZ's best interests. There is no guarantee that he will in fact make the All Blacks because he will have to prove himself first but it's a lot of money to not have him represent his country.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

The hype surrounding Sonny Bill Williams at the moment is interesting for a couple of reasons. The All Blacks are obviously interested but his current club, Toulon, are reportedly able to offer a whole lot more money. Unconfirmed reports have suggested $500,000 a year, plus endorsements for the All Blacks and up to $7 million for Toulon over 3 years. Even with endorsements, the All Blacks will struggle to offer the kind of money Toulon can.

It appears they are really keen and are pulling out all stops to secure him prior to next year's world cup. Apparently they would offer an opt out clause if he doesn't make the world cup squad, a chance to represent New Zealand in 7's at the Commonwealth Games, the opportunity to become the first player to represent NZ in both league and union and he is thinking about it!

Not that long ago most players would have given their right arm just to play for the All Blacks but not anymore. It's still an honour except now they have to compete just like everyone else and no longer will players automatically put their country first. If the price is right, they are gone. The All Blacks in some respects has almost become a bargaining chip for players seeking higher contracts overseas. If Sonny Bill Williams wants to play for the All Blacks he has to go for the right reasons. If he is going just for the money (which he is entitled to) then maybe that money could be better spent elsewhere.